The State of the Nationals, pt. 1

Welcome back! With the first few Spring Training games completed and Opening Day on the horizon, I figured I'd take a look at the state of the Nationals entering the 2022 season. If you haven't been keeping track, last season spelled the beginning of a rebuild for the Nats; or, as GM Mike Rizzo put it, a "reboot". Although Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez both preached positivity entering what will most likely be a down year for the Nats, it's quite reasonable to expect little out of this team in 2022.

So, in my first installment of this series, let's go ahead and establish a few things about the many unknowns of the 2022 Nationals; first and foremost, their potential.

Immediately following the Scherzer-Turner trade, my opinion regarding the future success of the Washington Nationals was, obviously, colored by severe disappointment and pessimism; however, having seen the celerity with which the front office has begun making moves to retool, I am now far more confident than I was in July of last year. Of course, my expectations remain low: I believe the most realistic prediction of the 2022 Nationals is likely to fall pretty well short of a wild card spot, even with the expanded 12-team playoffs. However, any squad with Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, and a bunch of young talent has the potential to make a run, and I would be surprised but not shocked to see the Nats sneak into the final wild card spot. As in any rebuild, retooling teams have wildly varying expectations, and the Nationals are no different. Although they could nab a WC spot, they could also finish last in the NL East for a second straight season. Unfortunately, I think the latter remains the more likely possibility.

The performance of the Nationals this year depends on a few factors, with one being, of course, their personal performance. I'll dive into that more after the offseason is fully wrapped up, but another major factor is the performance of the rest of the National League. The newly-minted 12-team playoff format gives 3 playoff spots per league to the division winners, as well as 3 wild card spots to the 3 next best records in each league. Taking a look at the NL, I see a multitude of teams that will most certainly be competitive in their divisions. In the NL West, the Dodgers are the early World Series favorite, with the Giants likely in a relatively close 2nd; the Padres, of course, are a complete toss-up between below-.500 and World Series contenders. The Central is not quite as crowded, with the Brewers and Cardinals likely being the only two competitors; frankly, I would be shocked if the Brewers did not repeat in their division. Lastly, the NL East, which will be won by either the Braves or the Mets, depending entirely on if the Mets have their annual mid-season collapse. Unfortunately, even in the event of that occurrence, the Nationals will still likely finish behind the Mets, and they will certainly not come close to the Braves.

So to recap, I see at least 5 teams that will definitely finish in front of the Nationals in terms of overall record: The Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, Cardinals, and Braves, with the Mets remaining a very likely possibility. If all 6 of those teams finish in front of the Nats, they will fall short of a playoff spot. Therefore, an accurate prediction of the Nationals' playoff potential must also accurately predict at least one of those teams to have an extreme down year, which is rather unlikely.

To conclude this portion of this review, the Nationals' playoff hopes are, to put it lightly, rather grim; so, the 2022 season should be viewed through a lense of future optimism: watching our young guys grow, our old guys bounce back, and Juan Soto being Juan Soto.

Part 2 of this series will dive into the ins and outs of the Nationals' prospective roster, which is, of course, extensive; hopefully this team can provide a bit more punch than most expect. Thanks for reading!

Emory