Rebuilding, But Not Without Immediate Progress: April in Review

The last few years have not been kind to the Nationals, and I think just about everyone expected 2023 to feel about the same as every other season since 2019. Rebuilding is a marathon, and the Nats started from the very back of the pack. Thus far, however, the 2023 Nationals have been playing an entertaining, relatively competitive brand of baseball characterized by contributions from franchise cornerstones and major steps in the right direction for a franchise that has an eye toward the future.

All that, of course, needs to be put in context. The Nationals are last in the NL East, and they will not be competing for a playoff spot. That much is to be expected. But I think I overestimated the degree of badness that this team would display. This is the first season in a while that I've been genuinely excited to turn on a Nats game. Maybe I'm biased, but I can't recall a whole lot of rebuilding squads that have that kind of appeal in their early stages.

Anyways, here's the deal with the Nationals as they enter May on a high note, having won a 4-game set against the competitive Cubs to start off the new month.

Current Record: 13-18 (Last in the NL East)

It's small consolation, sure, but the Nats hold the best record out of any divisional basement-dweller in the National League; that would hold true for the league as a whole, if not for the Yankees, who have a winning record yet somehow find themselves in last place in a loaded AL East. Winning is entertaining, and the Nats have found a way to do a decent amount of it against relatively solid teams. Winning series against the Mets, Twins, and Cubs is never a bad thing, but in a year when all three are surprisingly solid? Hard to expect much more out of this team.

Pitching Success Stories

Josiah Gray has asserted himself as a legitimate ace. A 2.67 ERA (and a 158 ERA+) certainly reflect that. A 1.277 WHIP and only 4 home runs given up through 6 games also reflect the massive step forward that Gray has taken; he gave up 38 homers in 28 starts last season. He's the best pitcher on the Nationals, and one of the best in the league thus far.

MacKenzie Gore isn't far behind, however; a 3.77 ERA isn't entirely indicative of the dominance Gore has shown this season. A 1-2 punch of Gray and Gore is absolutely deadly, and it seems like both of them have plenty of room to improve.

Trevor Williams has shown up on multiple occasions now, giving the Nats a chance to win almost every time out; can't ask for much more out of a number-three starter. Heck, even Patrick Corbin has been serviceable.

Outside of the starters, a few bullpen guys are also showing out on a daily basis. Hunter Harvey, the former Orioles reliever, has been dominant in relief, with a 1.98 ERA and a 217 ERA+ through 13 appearances. If Kyle Finnegan keeps getting himself in trouble in the 9th (and if manager Davey Martinez insists on continuing to use him with such frequency), Harvey should be first in line for the closer spot. Mason Thompson has also been lights-out in relief. Kyle Finnegan, the closer, has not been lights-out whatsoever. His ERA is an even 6.00; his FIP is even higher, suggesting that he's still somehow getting lucky. Until he has a major meltdown, I expect Davey to stick with him as closer, and I don't necessarily disagree with that decision, but I wouldn't mind if he went with a committee system, considering the quality of the other options. Davey's history with overusing relief pitchers concerns me; it's more important now than ever that he does everything that he can to preserve the health of the relievers.

Power Problems

The Nationals are a team of outliers. No team strikes out less than the Nationals; 209 strikeouts thus far, 21 less than the next closest team, the Arizona Diamondbacks. That does not mean, however, that those at-bats are productive; the Nationals also have the second-fewest home runs in the league, with only 18 on the season. Small ball is fun, but it doesn't create a lot of runs, which puts a lot of strain on the bullpen to hold small leads; it also essentially ends the game early if the starter gives up a few too many. As I'm writing this, the Nats beat the Cubs 4-3, with all 4 runs coming via the home run (shoutout to Lane Thomas and Alex Call), but that kind of game is certainly not the norm. I'm not sure what to attribute such a lack of power to other than questionable approaches, but the lack of strikeouts are hard to argue with; it'll be interesting to see if those trends continue.

Top Performers

Out of the consistent starters for the Nats, Victor Robles (yes, that Victor Robles) has been, by far, the best hitter on the team. a .302 average and .766 OPS are certainly shocking developments from a historically disappointing batter. If Robles plays like this for the entirety of the season, he could legitimately be a valuable contributor to the next competitive Nationals squad, which is a sentence I never thought I would say.

Outside of Robles, production has been rather sparse; low slugging percentages and OPS are indicative of the power issues that the Nats have faced. Lane Thomas and CJ Abrams are contributing at a relatively solid level, but neither is setting the world on fire. Offensive production remains the biggest area of concern.

Debuts

Only one debut worth mentioning here, and that's Jake Irvin, the #20 prospect in the Nationals system, whose control was touted as perhaps the best out of the Nats pitching prospects. He struggled early, plunking a batter with his first pitch and issuing a few walks to go down 1-0; Irvin settled in nicely, however, flashing a changeup/sinker with nasty arm-side movement that certainly had the Cubs hitters off-balance. Pitch count limited Irvin to just 4.1 innings, but he gave up just 1 run on 2 hits and 4 walks. I'd expect Irvin to remain the fifth starter as long as Kuhl's injuries persist and Irvin continues to look competent at the major league level.

UP NEXT

May started off strong for the Nats, as they won 3 out of 4 against the Cubs. They'll head to the west coast for series against the Diamondbacks and the Giants, return home to face Scherzer and the Mets, take a quick detour to Miami, host the Tigers and Soto's Padres, and finish off the month on the road against the Royals and Dodgers. Hopefully the Nats can keep the momentum going as they enter the second month of the season.

Thanks for reading! Music stuff coming soon.

Emory