Preseason MLB Power Rankings

Ladies and gentlemen, it is the greatest time of the year: baseball season! Accordingly, it’s power rankings time, along with a little side note on my plan for baseball coverage this season. As a Nats fan, and as someone who is bored over the summer, I’m gonna try to sorta recap every series as the season progresses, with weekly or bi-weekly progress of notable teams/players/storylines, depending on what’s interesting at the time. Essentially, I’m gonna try to ramp up my baseball coverage as soon as the summer starts. So, if that’s your thing, hope you’re excited!

As always, if y’all have any ideas for posts or specific topics you want me to cover, feel free to let me know on my IG (e_huffman11). I’m always searching for new ideas. 

Back to power rankings: I’m gonna start from the bottom up, primarily because I’m having trouble even deciding who the best team in the league is, but the worst is always a bit easier. A few factors I’m using to determine placement: the strength of the division, performance in 2022, improvement over the offseason, and general talent. I’ll give each team’s position a little context, and provide one storyline to watch for the rest of the year. Let’s get started!

30. Oakland Athletics

The Nationals aren’t last! Small victories, just like the number in the win column for the Athletics this year. Seriously, though, Oakland’s fanbase is too dedicated to receive such a pathetic team in return, and as much as I hate the idea of the Las Vegas Athletics, that possibility looks more and more like an inevitability with each season. The Athletics are at the beginning of a major rebuild, focusing heavily on speed and defensive ability. Looking through the roster is like looking through a Double-A team from some town you’ve never heard of, except this team is supposed to play Major League Baseball. 

One storyline to watch: Can Cristian Pache return to top-prospect form? A fairly large sample size yielded poor results from the former Braves prospect, who has failed to display his potential at the big-league level. Success from Pache, along with newly-acquired Japanese starting pitcher Shintaro Fujinami (who looked solid in his first Spring Training outing) and former Marlin JJ Bleday, would at least give A’s fans something to look forward to in what will surely be a long, painful, and sparsely attended season. 

29. Washington Nationals 

The Nationals are in a truly unfortunate position in the basement of the NL East, which is unbelievably loaded with three serious World Series contenders and one fringe Wild Card team. If not for the schedule changes reducing the number of inter-divisional matchups, the Nats might lose the most in the league. Like the Athletics, the Nationals are in a full-scale rebuild, but unlike the A’s, they’ve benefited from a few big-name trades netting some solid prospects. A farm system that was borderline-worst in the league is now securely top-10, buttressed by star outfield prospects James Wood, Elijah Green, and Robert Hassell III. The lineup looks shockingly mediocre, but, as always, the rotation will be flimsy and subject to significant changes over the course of the year.

One storyline to watch: The performances of Cade Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore, and Josiah Gray. Okay, I’ll be completely honest, I wrote this entire section focusing on Cavalli’s importance to our rotation this year. And then, because we haven’t suffered enough, he promptly suffered an injury to his pitching arm, requiring Tommy John surgery and ending his season before it began. Don’t you love rebuilding? Anyways, Gore and Gray both have solid upside, and Gore has yet to reinjure himself (sorry if I jinxed it) so they should be fun to watch. (Added bonus: the Nats locked up Keibert Ruiz for the foreseeable future, so buy the jersey now! He looks to take a big step forward in 2023.)

28. Cincinnati Reds

Looking at the lineups, it’s tough to justify placing the Reds above the Nationals, but I’m banking on the generally-stronger pedigree of player development within the Reds organization to give them the edge, at least at the beginning of both teams’ respective rebuilds. The plan is solid, the pieces are steadily on their way, and the Reds aren’t gonna get beat around quite as much in a weaker NL Central. This team is very much in a rebuild, however, so it’s difficult to expect much of anything from Cincinnati. 

One storyline to watch: Jonathan India. India was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2021, but last year saw him regress somewhat; whether or not that was just a sophomore slump may determine the future of the Reds middle infield, considering their farm system is loaded with prospects. 

27. Detroit Tigers

Last year was supposed to be the beginning of the end of a seemingly eternal rebuild in Detroit, but their big-time acquisition of Javier Baez never fully panned out; the fact that Baez led the team in multiple offensive categories is less a testament to Baez and more a sad representation of the incredibly bad offensive stagnation that dragged the Tigers to only a game shy of the bottom of the AL Central, just ahead of the Royals. Despite last year’s failure, the Tigers remain a difficult team to project. Their pitching staff, once healthy, could be lethal, with young stars like Spencer Turnbull and Casey Mize headlining the rotation; unfortunately, Turnbull missed all of last year, and so his success this year is difficult to project. Mize had Tommy John surgery recently, and will thus miss most, if not all, of 2023. Regardless of the rotation, if the Tigers want to make any semblance of progress this year, the lineup will have to be significantly better than last year. 

One storyline to watch: Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. Torkelson, the Tigers’ highly touted first-round draft pick a few years ago, got his first shot at a full major league season and utterly failed to meet expectations. The tools are there, and there’s no doubt that the potential is still there, but his success will be critical to the Tigers this year, and for as long as Spencer stays in Detroit. Riley Greene has Gold-Glove potential in the outfield as soon as this year, but the question of injury will remain until he plays a full season. Both Torkelson and Greene are crucial to bringing Detroit back to the top of the AL Central, and it’ll be interesting to see how they perform in 2023. 

26. Kansas City Royals

The Royals feel like they haven’t been relevant in a long time, but relevance is coming soon enough. The arrival and subsequent success of their young position players, namely Bobby Witt Jr. (SS), MJ Melendez (C), and Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, and one of the best names in the league) was enough to give the Royals the occasional headline, but not enough to drag them out of the basement of a notably weak division. The rotation will be the key this year; it’s not particularly young, as Brad Keller and Brady Singer look to be the youngest faces in the rotation, which is filled out by some other veterans including the exceedingly eccentric Zach Greinke. As long as the rotation isn’t abysmal, the Royals certainly have the established position players and young talent to beat out the Tigers for second-worst; best case, this team is higher on this list come September, but postseason baseball will have to wait. 

One storyline to watch: MJ Melendez & Salvador Perez. Perez remains a solid starting catcher, one who has certainly won over the hearts of the Kansas City faithful over his tenure with the Royals, but Melendez is steadily knocking on the door; comparing their performances and watching for the effects of Perez’s leadership on Melendez will be fascinating, not to mention extremely important for Kansas City. 

25. Colorado Rockies

The Rockies didn’t get worse, but they definitely didn’t get better. Their lineup looks shockingly similar to last year; all they can hope for is a major resurgence in health and productivity from Kris Bryant, who signed a major deal with Colorado and promptly fell off the face of the earth in 2022. I like Bryant a lot, and I could definitely see his success in Chicago translating to the thin air at Coors, but his health remains questionable; not much for the Rockies to hope for except perhaps a .500 season, but they will be the worst team in the NL West this year, especially considering the improvement of the other teams in that division. 

One storyline to watch: Can C.J. Cron put together another successful season? Cron has been a quietly productive player for most of his career, but every passing season brings another chance for the Rockies to flip him to a contender for prospects, which they desperately need. He was an All-Star in 2022, and similar production this year should earn him a trade to a contender; failure to produce would mean Colorado misses out once again. Rough times in Colorado, and they don’t appear to be changing anytime soon. 

24. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates fans might have had the worst stretch of baseball to watch over the past decade compared to just about any other team. Pittsburgh has been buried in an eternal rebuild, but fear not! A strong young core, led by Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes, looks to bring the Pirates below the 100-loss threshold for the first time since 2020, which was an equally-abysmal shortened season. Hayes is locked in for awhile thanks to an extraordinarily early and team-friendly deal, if his production continues; Cruz is a ways off from potentially hitting free agency. The Pirates picked up some decent power bats in Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana, and they brought back fan-favorite Andrew McCutchen for what could very well be his farewell tour; at the very least, your interest in the Pirates should be rising slowly. Their first playoff appearance since losing consecutive Wild Card games in 2014 and 2015 will have to wait another couple of years, but Pittsburgh is this close to being relevant again. 

One storyline to watch: Will Bryan Reynolds hang around for the long term? The Pirates success in the future won’t hinge on Reynolds, but if the Pirates don’t sign him long-term or trade him soon, they’ll be missing out on serious value. Reynolds has made his desire for a trade very apparent, and the Pirates have consistently reasserted their intention to make him a franchise cornerstone, yet Hayes remains the one with the extension. 

23. Boston Red Sox

Sad times in Boston. The offseason saw Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez headed to the west coast, signing with the Padres and Dodgers, respectively. The Red Sox picked up Justin Turner, who promptly got drilled in the face during Spring Training (he’s okay!) so things aren’t exactly looking up. Last year’s marquee acquisition, shortstop Trevor Story, looks to miss most, if not all, of 2023 after undergoing surgery. The Sox will be the worst team in a tough AL East where even the Orioles are relevant now. Chris Sale looks great, though! Maybe he won’t fall apart this year!

One storyline to watch: Can they pitch? Seriously, though. Can they? Chris Sale is the only mainstay here, and that’s only true when he’s healthy, which is basically never. If the Red Sox plan on Nick Pivetta, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, and the youngster Brayan Bello to anchor their rotation this year, it’ll be a long season in Boston. 

22. San Francisco Giants

The Giants have remained relevant for longer than I would’ve expected, but Father Time marches on. Farhan Zaidi has done a remarkable job of doing more with less; after losing out on Aaron Judge and watching Carlos Correa slip away, he signed the likes of Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, and Ross Stripling, who should put the Giants in at least serviceable condition. Still, the Padres and Dodgers remain far beyond the Giants in terms of ability, and it would take a major injury bug to a couple of Wild Card contenders for the Giants to slip into the playoffs, which might not necessarily be that far-fetched.

One storyline to watch: Can Joey Bart take the next step? The young catcher is now in the unfortunate position of trying to replace Buster Posey, one of the greatest catchers of all time and a San Francisco legend. Last season was underwhelming, but with the benefit of low stakes and a full season ahead of him, perhaps Bart can make good on his potential and solidify his spot behind the plate for the foreseeable future in the Bay. 

21. Arizona Diamondbacks

Welcome to a universe where the Arizona Diamondbacks deserve your attention. Crazy, right? They turned top outfield cornerstone Daulton Varsho into Gabriel Moreno, one of the best catching and overall prospects in the game, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., an established big-league outfielder with All-Star potential. The rotation sports consistently underrated ace Zac Gallen, who looks to replicate an extremely strong 2022. Former outfield prospects Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll have officially graduated, and they look to make a huge impact on a quickly developing roster. Kyle Lewis, a former AL Rookie of the Year, looks to bounce back from injury with a change of scenery. If everything, or even 50% of the roster, falls into place, the D-Backs will be relevant again; still, expect them to likely just miss out on a playoff spot, especially considering the strength of the NL West. 

One storyline to watch: Will Ketel Marte have his resurgence? Since 2019, Marte has replicated his All-Star, 4th-in-MVP-voting success once, with a strong showing in 2021; 2022 was not kind to him, but having some support in this lineup for once could gear him up for solid production. Arizona needs Ketel Marte to play like it’s 2019 a little more often, and this season could go a long way towards proving that he’s capable of being a long-term part of this club’s plan. 

20. Miami Marlins

Every year I think the Marlins are gonna be better than they are, and every year I’m… well, not disappointed exactly, but surprised. This year, they should be better. Adding Luis Arraez adds another dimension of offense to the lineup. Sandy Alcantara has shown signs of repeating his Cy Young campaign during the World Baseball Classic. Bryan De La Cruz could be the next big thing, considering how he ended the 2022 season. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a legitimate franchise cornerstone, especially if he handles the transition to centerfield well. The bottom line is that the team has a couple talented pieces, including an extremely solid rotation, but they have been consistently unable to build a competitive team around them, and I don’t see that changing drastically this year; look for Miami to flirt with a Wild Card spot, best-case scenario. 

One storyline to watch: What is Jorge Soler’s true ceiling? Soler, of course, hit that World Series bomb that brought the trophy back to Atlanta, and his postseason success earned him a nice contract with the Marlins; still, his first year was disappointing. Miami is notoriously pitcher-friendly, but look for Jorge to blast some more bombs to lift Miami into playoff contention, if they can win a couple against their more formidable NL East foes. 

19. Chicago Cubs

Credit where credit is due: the Cubs were really, really bad last year following a major sell-off, and I certainly didn’t think they had the gumption or the ability to pull themselves out of such a deep hole so quickly. Then they had themselves an offseason, man! Dansby Swanson brings an air of possibility to a team that probably would’ve been a few spots lower on this list, but don’t overlook Trey Mancini, Cody Bellinger or Jameson Taillon, both of whom can play pivotal roles in helping the Cubs compete in a middling NL Central. The rotation will be the major question mark; can Kyle Hendricks really keep pitching well, and is Marcus Stroman actually going to be good again? If the answer to both of those questions is yes, the Cubs may be a surprise come September. 

One storyline to watch: Can Cody Bellinger be Cody Bellinger again? Granted, this is an obvious one, but no less important; Cody hasn’t been himself for awhile, and not just in a league-average kinda way, but in a not-starting, detriment-to-the-team kinda way. The Cubs will look to add some Belli bombs to their lineup, hopefully making this acquisition look like an absolute steal. 

18. Texas Rangers

The potential for the Rangers is kind of shocking the longer you think about it. Adolis Garcia had a nice stretch a while back, and if he replicates that success, he’ll be a dangerous asset. We all know what kind of player Josh Jung could turn into. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien both have MVP-type upside. Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi are both always candidates for a bounce-back campaign, and Jacob deGrom is literally the greatest pitcher to ever grace this planet when he’s healthy.

Are you seeing a pattern? I am. A lot has to go right for the Rangers to find themselves in a playoff spot come October. I’m taking the under. Too much injury risk, too much necessary potential-realization, and too little depth. 

One storyline to watch: Martin Perez. Perez put together an out-of-nowhere ace-caliber season in Texas last year, and they’re banking on his continued success to carry their rotation more so than most. I’m not sure 196 innings is sustainable, but it might have to be if the Rangers want to go anywhere this season. 

17. Los Angeles Angels

Same old song and dance. Every year I tell my dad that this is the year the Angels make the playoffs. Every year he tells me that the Angels are cursed, and they will never again make the playoffs. I’m really starting to believe that, regardless of the fact that the Angels made some pretty significant moves to improve their squad this offseason. No big names (like they don’t already have enough of those), but additions like Hunter Renfroe, Tyler Anderson, Gio Urshela and Brandon Drury are pretty significant. They got a nice quantity of relatively-high quality players, and they lost pretty much nothing. The problem, of course, is that the rotation is still pretty much Shohei Ohtani and everybody else. Maybe, for his next trick, Shohei can pitch every two days instead of every five, while simultaneously hitting leadoff and cleanup with a .400 average and 250 OPS+! Seriously, though, two stars can only do so much, and the entirety of America wants to see Mike Trout in the playoffs; that means the Angels can choose to be America’s team or public enemy no. 1, depending on how the rest of his eternal contract goes. 

The point, of course, is that the Angels can be a playoff team. They can also be pretty bad. Your guess is as good as mine!

One storyline to watch: man, I gotta pick one? Fine: Can Anthony Rendon bring Nationals fans even closer to the brink of despair? AKA, Tony Two Bags hasn’t been himself since the Nats let him walk after the 2019 miracle run. Injuries have hampered him at every step, but we all know the potential is there; personally, I’ll be rooting hard for Anthony to bring an LA team not named the Dodgers back to the playoffs. 

16. Baltimore Orioles

Last year felt like the beginning of something special in Baltimore, as they dramatically blew by expectations and remained in the hunt for a Wild Card spot until the end of the season. They did that without John Means, their established ace, and with mid- to late-season debuts from their top prospects. Now that Adley Rutschman is fully integrated, look for the Orioles to take yet another step forward, perhaps breaking through to the playoffs this year. Successful debut seasons for top 3B prospect Gunnar Henderson and future ace Grayson Rodriguez, along with a solid mid-season return from Means, could mean big things are coming in Baltimore, as soon as this season or next. 

One storyline to watch: Who is Adam Frazier, really? Frazier was one of very few headline-worthy acquisitions by an Orioles front office that isn’t quite ready to bet the house on their squad, preferring to slowly yet steadily invest in the future. Frazier, however, could very well be a win-now piece if he can replicate his success in 2021; he has yet to return to the All-Star-level play that he showed in Pittsburgh, but a full season in a new spot could usher in a resurgence. 

15. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are a consistently enigmatic team that plays well below where they should. On the one hand, it’s hard to look at a rotation featuring Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and Mike Clevinger without getting somewhat excited about this team’s potential. On the other hand, there’s a 50% chance that 2-3 of those guys, along with half the outfield and a quarter of the infield, suffer season-ending injuries within the first month of the season. Perhaps new management and an improved health and fitness team could bring all that talent to fruition. I mean, cmon, guys! The bullpen is disgusting, from Kelly to Bummer to Hendriks. Grandal won’t be atrocious again (probably). Andrew Vaughn has all the tools to become a star at 1B. Luis Robert Jr., Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez are all legit stars if they can just stay healthy. This team could dominate the AL Central or finish 3rd and miss the playoffs. The jury’s still out, but I’m gonna bet on them to continue to struggle with injuries until they prove me wrong. 

One storyline to watch: What can a new field manager do for this squad? Tony La Russa is an MLB legend; there’s no doubting that. He was also the wrong manager for this team last season. He consistently dissed his own players for showing emotion and getting excited, while executing odd decisions like intentionally walking players with strikes against them. A few DUIs later, and he’s out of the picture. The White Sox showed some fire under interim manager, winning 9 of 12 following La Russa’s departure; whether or not that success can carry over to new manager Pedro Grifol’s tenure remains to be seen, but surely it cannot be worse than last season. 

14. Minnesota Twins

Injuries remain the story here, but perhaps not to the same extent as the White Sox, which is why I have them a spot higher. The Twins lost a decent chunk of their squad, but they didn’t get nothing in return. Luis Arraez was certainly a tough guy to lose, but they turned him into Pablo Lopez, who can benefit their rotation now and in the future, and two strong prospects to bolster a relatively middling farm system. They added Christian Vazquez behind the plate, which is a pretty huge upgrade. Byron Buxton is one of the best players in baseball when he’s healthy (but, of course, he’s never healthy; nevertheless, he’s looked and felt good so far!) Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis (when he’s back from injury) should begin to make their presence felt. And, greatest of all, they nabbed hot commodity and Nationals legend Michael A. Taylor for some solid defensive outfield depth. 

But, of course, none of those things can rival their initial loss and eventual re-signing of Carlos Correa for the next six years. First, they had to watch Correa walk to the Giants, who signed him to a monstrous 13-year, $350 million deal, pending a physical. Correa’s ankle raised concerns during the physical, and the deal slowly slid away; Correa quickly negotiated a 12-year, $315 million deal with the Mets, only to watch that deal fall through just as quickly. So, naturally, the Twins took the opportunity to sign Correa, as of now only 28 years old, to a 6-year, $200 million deal; he’ll be worth every penny if he stays on the field. 

Like the White Sox, the Twins could finish anywhere between first and third in the AL Central; I’ll tentatively place them in second. 

One storyline to watch: Joey Gallo in the post-shift era. Sure, teams still have some clever ways of utilizing the shift even with the new rules, but it will still be harder to consistently take away hits from those pull-side power hitters that have struggled so much as of late. Gallo fits that description, a slugger with potential to break out with a bit more room on the pull side. It also definitely doesn’t hurt that Joey won’t have the New York media on his back; the lights are a bit dimmer in Minnesota. A breakout season for Gallo would go a long way towards putting the Twins in the playoffs. 

13. Tampa Bay Rays

No team does less with more than the Rays. They’ll consistently field a team that plays above-average defense and pitches lights-out despite a rotation featuring anywhere between 5 and 12 guys you’ve never heard of, and I’m not about to doubt them now, even if they look a little different (comparatively, of course). Kevin Kiermaier, one of the most distinctly-Rays players in recent memory, is gone. Mike Zunino and Ji-Man Choi are all gone. And yet, this team still looks sneaky good. They added Zach Eflin from the Phillies, a pretty high-profile pitcher for a low-profile team. They extended the perpetually-underrated Yandy Diaz. Potential ace Tyler Glasnow can only stay injured for so long, and maybe Brandon McKay will break out again. The point is that the Rays always find success in unexpected places, and I’m not gonna start doubting them now. See y’all in October, Tampa Bay! (Just please don’t host too many games. Tropicana just doesn’t do it for me.)

One storyline to watch: Wander Franco & Randy Arozarena. A highly-touted prospect turned successful MLB shortstop, Franco is on the verge of perennial success. This season could be the beginning. Arozarena, meanwhile, is going absolutely insane in the World Baseball Classic, as he does in the playoffs just about every year. If he could extract a portion of the postseason success and show it during the regular season, he also has All-Star potential. 

12. Cleveland Guardians

I know I said the White Sox and the Twins could finish anywhere between first and third in the division, but there’s a pretty obvious difference in talent between the Guardians and the rest of the division, at least in my opinion. It all starts with the rotation, led by perennial Cy Young candidate Shane Bieber. Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, and McKenzie finish out a pretty nasty group of high-ceiling guys, especially if McKenzie can take the next step this season. The bullpen is equally nasty, headlined by lockdown closer Emmanuel Clase and James “Wild Thing” Karinchak. Outside of pitching, Cleveland improved behind the dish and at first, picking up Mike Zunino and Josh Bell (who should return to his usual self this season, bringing a huge piece to the Cleveland offense).3B  Jose Ramirez is just about the most consistently dangerous bat in baseball, 2B Andres Gimenez was an All-Star last year, and SS Amed Rosario is a solid defensive anchor. The outfield, outside of Steven Kwan, is certainly a little questionable, but the lineup as a whole is sound and dangerous. Pair that with deadly pitching, and you’ve got a winning combination. Gimme the Guardians to win the AL Central, 9 times outta 10. 

One storyline to watch: Terry Francona. I know it’s difficult to just say “watch the manager” but trust me on this one. Terry is far and away the most respected manager in the league; he has a knack for creating strong clubhouses and great squads out of middling rosters. Giving Francona a squad like this is just asking for outperforming expectations, so keep an eye on Terry’s managerial decisions over the course of the season as he makes the most of a solid opportunity to compete. 

11. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers should’ve won a World Series by now. There are a lot of things I don’t understand about this team, but the biggest thing I just don’t get is their consistent desire to be somewhat competitive, but never drop big money and break into the group of truly elite teams. Christian Yelich might never be good again, but they’re gonna keep trying! That rotation, however, is absolutely disgusting, headlined by Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff; Devin Williams, as always, will lead the bullpen, assuming he doesn’t punch a wall and break his hand again. Despite my general disdain for the Brewers and their typically lethargic strategy, they did get some stuff done this offseason, somehow prying William Contreras from the Braves following his breakout season and nabbing Jesse Winker as well. The lineup looks more dangerous, but question marks remain. We all know they can pitch; if they can hit, they’ll win the NL Central. 

One storyline to watch: Christian Yelich. Yeah, I already mentioned it, but it feels like it’s gotta happen eventually, right? Beginning with his debut in 2013, Yelich absolutely raked, culminating in a .329 BA season in 2019 that would’ve won him MVP two seasons in a row, if not for Cody Bellinger. The next season was abysmal (.205), and it’s been a slow but steady climb out of that hole since then (.252 last year). The OPS+, somehow, never fell below league average, but Yelich has much more than league average potential. If he can get back there, the Brewers can play deep into October. 

10. Seattle Mariners

Seattle showed their mettle last year, breaking into the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. They only got better this offseason, spending pretty big on impact bats Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong, which should strengthen their infield and outfield pretty dramatically. Wong adds some veteran defensive ability to complement JP Crawford at SS, and Hernandez is a 127 OPS+ power bat and reigning All-Star. Julio Rodriguez looks to avoid the dreaded (and somewhat overstated) sophomore slump, and Ty France aims to build upon a breakout season. The main questions for this squad remain in the rotation. Logan Gilbert took a big step forward last season, but the peripherals are sketchy; if he regresses, they’ll be reliant on a pretty inexperienced group outside of Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo. Still, this team has all the talent to break into October, which I fully expect them to do even if they can’t unseat the Astros atop the AL West. 

One storyline to watch: Can Jarred Kelenic figure it out? Once a touted top prospect, Kelenic hasn’t exactly made headlines for the right reasons, posting -2 WAR in his two MLB seasons and failing to hit .200. The talent was there at some point, and he’s tearing it up in Spring Training this year, slashing .410/.439/.872; granted, it’s still spring, but it’s good to see him having success in some form or another. The Mariners have shown they don’t need him to win games, but it would be a welcome boost for a squad looking to establish themselves as a true playoff contender. 

9. St. Louis Cardinals

I’m not sure I fully understand all the Cardinals hype, as much as I want this team to compete with the likes of the Padres and the Mets. They’ll be far more reliant on new talent this year, with prospects like Brendan Donovan and Jordan Walker expected to contribute in major ways. All it takes is one look at Jarred Kelenic or Spencer Torkelson to know that the minors-majors transition doesn’t always go smoothly, even for the best prospects. Walker shows every sign of being major-league ready, and I expect him to be successful, but you just never know.

Outside of them, though, this is a very well put together team. The rotation is nothing special; Flaherty should be ready to return from his injury issues and be the ace for an otherwise-questionable group, reliant on the likes of Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, and a 41-year-old version of Adam Wainwright who definitely isn’t what he used to be. They’ll have to smoothly integrate Willson Contreras behind the plate, a spot occupied by future-Hall of Famer Yadier Molina for about as long as I’ve been alive; I gotta give them credit for going out and getting the best available replacement, but replacing Yadi is about as difficult an undertaking as any. The lineup is solid as long as Goldschmidt and Arenado maintain MVP-level production. This is probably the best defensive team in the league, which is especially important considering the questions in the rotation. Still, they’re a far cry from the true World Series contenders, at least on paper. 

One storyline to watch: Juan Yepez. You’ve probably never heard of Juan Yepez. The only reason I’ve heard of Juan Yepez is because he came up clutch for my fantasy team last year. He played 76 games for the Cards in his first career MLB season, hitting .253 with an OPS+ of 111. Players like Yepez will have to take a step forward if St. Louis wants baseball deep into October, so it’s encouraging to see his success translate to the major leagues. If he could take another step forward, he’d be a key depth piece of a strong St. Louis squad. 

8. Los Angeles Dodgers

Shocking, right??? Not only are the Dodgers not the best team in baseball, but they’re not even in the top 5! The Dodgers were stagnant this offseason, something that can’t be said about every team ahead of them on this list. They lost a lot, ranging in talent from Cody Bellinger to Justin Turner to Trea Turner, and the front office seems determined to replace those guys internally (granted, they do have a fantastic farm system, but replacing Trea Turner is certainly not easy). The fact of the matter is that the Dodgers could only spend big money on rentals for so long, and it caught up to them. That’s not to say, of course, that this team isn’t capable of winning a World Series; they certainly are. It just isn’t looking as likely as it has in the past. They’ve already lost Gavin Lux for the year. Walker Buehler will miss most, if not all, of 2023. I’m not confident in their replacements. This team, however, remains very dangerous, even if they aren’t the best in their own division; the rotation is deep and lethal, with the likes of Kershaw, Urias, and Gonsolin. Nobody wants to see them in October. 

One storyline to watch: What does Max Muncy have to give? Max swings back and forth between elite and below average. From 2018 through 2022, his OPS+ looks like this: 161, 132, 95, 135, 96. Muncy is on pace to get back on track this season, and when he’s on track, he gets MVP votes, so look out. 

7. Toronto Blue Jays

Last year was supposed to be the year for the Blue Jays. Don’t believe me? Just ask Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who stated, “Last year was a trailer; now you guys are going to see the movie.” Well, the movie was a Wild Card exit to the upstart Mariners, an embarrassing end to an otherwise-solid season. This offseason, the Jays were certainly active. Whether or not their trade for Daulton Varsho was a win for them is up for debate; the losses of Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hurt them short- and long-term. They did, however, sign both Chris Bassitt and Brandon Belt, two seriously underrated, win-now moves. The lineup is young and dangerous, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Matt Chapman, and Bo Bichette. Guerrero Jr. should be better than average this year, if not MVP-level. The Jays might just mess around and win the AL East, a notoriously stacked division. 

One storyline to watch: High-ceiling, low-floor rotation. Berrios posted an ERA+ of 74 last year, well below league average, but every season before that saw him perform well above average. I’d bank on Berrios to get back to being himself in 2023. The Japanese import Yusei Kikuchi has been pretty bad since he came stateside, but every year is another chance to break out. Alek Manoah is Cy Young-caliber, and Chris Bassitt is wildly underrated. And, of course, Hyun-Jin Ryu might randomly decide to become prime Maddux; his 179(!!!) ERA+ from 2019 has yet to be repeated so far, and last year was a significant downgrade. All in all, this rotation could be the best in the league, or it could be below average, but it’s worth watching nonetheless. 

6. Philadelphia Phillies

Your reigning NL East champs have a tall task ahead of them. If you thought the NL East couldn’t get any more competitive, the Mets, Braves, and Phillies all dramatically improved this offseason, the Phillies perhaps more than anyone; let’s not forget, however, that this is the same team that won 87 games and finished 14 games behind both the Braves and the Mets. Adding Trea Turner doesn’t magically give you 14 wins, no matter how good he is. Philadelphia will be down Bryce Harper, who put them on his back last year, for at least the first month or so of the season, and his return to right field is questionable beyond that. They lost Zach Eflin and Noah Syndergaard, replacing them with Taijuan Walker (not a significant upgrade). Don’t get me wrong, Turner is a net improvement, but the building blocks for true competition with the Mets and Brewers are not here, at least in my opinion. They’ll make the Wild Card, but who knows from there?

One storyline to watch: Nick Castellanos. If the Phillies want a successful no-defense, all-offense approach for the second straight year, Castellanos will have to return to Cincinnati levels of production. He posted his first below-average OPS+ since 2015, and considering his essentially-negative defensive production, the Phillies really need his bat to wake up to get anything out of him in 2023, especially while Harper remains sidelined. Third-place finish for the Phillies this year, perhaps a third-place that would be second in any other division. 

Update: Rhys Hoskins just tore his ACL in Spring Training, a week before Opening Day. It’s difficult to overestimate Hoskins’ impact on the Philadelphia lineup and clubhouse. Finding an equivalent replacement is just about impossible; I don’t see a path to the top of the division for the Phillies. 

5. San Diego Padres

The Padres spent the offseason trying to figure out how to integrate three shortstops into their lineup at the same time. Make fun of San Diego as much as you want for dumping money into the one position they probably didn’t need, but their commitment to winning is impressive, and they now have the roster to win a World Series. They look significantly better than their big brothers in LA for the first time in forever. The rotation is strong, led by Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell; the bullpen should also be strong, provided that Josh Hader turns back into his normal self, not the 14.00 ERA post-trade Hader we saw last season. The lineup was deadly last year without Juan Soto for half the year, Fernando Tatis Jr. for most of the year, and Xander Bogaerts for all of the year; all three perennial MVP candidates should be back and better than ever. The Padres spent the spring moving Tatis Jr. into right field to make room for Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim in the infield, but Tatis Jr. is athletic enough to make the switch relatively seamless. The Padres will field an extremely competitive lineup every single day, even if one or multiple starters go down, a credit to the incredible depth that the front office in San Diego has spent so much money to obtain. If 75% goes according to plan, the Padres should win the NL West. (Oh, yeah, they have Manny Machado. Just FYI).

One storyline to watch: Catching. It’s hard to find any holes in this squad. The Padres have a strong defensive, weak offensive catcher in Austin Nola. Nola is not gonna give the Padres average offensive production. On the other hand, Luis Campusano is young and unproven; the upside is there, but the floor is much lower than Nola. Expect a lot of time-sharing behind the dish until they figure out who they want to roll with moving forward. 

4. New York Mets

If the Mets didn’t choke historically every single year, they could be in the top three. As it is, the Mets are another true World Series contender with arguably the best rotation in the league, especially if Kodai Senga and the “Ghost Pitch” thrive in the States. Pitching wins championships, but Scherzer and Verlander, two dominant yet old future All-Stars, absolutely must pitch at a high level for a lot of innings. That’s not a safe bet, at least in my opinion. The Mets also lost the best closer in the league for the year, as Edwin Diaz bizarrely suffered a season-ending injury while celebrating a quarterfinal win in the World Baseball Classic. Those two concerns are why I don’t think the Mets will win a championship or a pennant this season, but they should be extraordinarily competitive. The lineup remains elite, especially if Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez successfully transition to full-time jobs in the Majors. The Mets were pretty close to landing Carlos Correa, which probably wouldn’t have been worth the money or the injury concerns; owner Steve Cohen remains 100% willing to throw money at his passion project, but the Dodgers showed us that money doesn’t always win championships. 

One storyline to watch: Bullpen issues. Insidethepen.com placed the Mets bullpen at 13th at the conclusion of 2022; that’s with Edwin Diaz. I’m not fully convinced that the rotation will be strong, but the bullpen could be even worse, a fatal flaw for an otherwise-strong team. 

3. New York Yankees

I’m putting this team here because they have the success of last year (albeit, also the dismal collapse of last year), and they didn’t lose much of anything. Rather, they added Carlos Rodon, a key piece of support for what should be a dominant rotation, as long as Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas pitch like they should. I still don’t believe in this team. Aaron Judge singlehandedly dragged the Yankees across the finish line last year; sure, they made it to the ALCS, but they also got swept in embarrassing fashion by the Astros, even without buzzers or trash cans. The depth isn’t there, especially if they plan on Aaron Hicks, Josh Donaldson, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa contributing on a daily basis. Still, a track record of strong regular seasons and improvement over last year give the Yankees the benefit of the doubt. That doesn’t mean I don’t doubt their ability to replicate it. 

One storyline to watch: Will DJ LeMahieu be elite once again? 2020 saw LeMahieu lead the league in batting average, OBP, OPS, and OPS+, even without Coors Field as a buffer. 2020 was also a shortened season; since then, LeMahieu has been just above league average. The Yankees don’t need an elite season from DJ, but they could certainly use an MVP-caliber player outside of Aaron Judge. 

2. Atlanta Braves

Atlanta still runs the NL East, in spite of some strong squads in Philly and Flushing. GM Alex Anthopoulos continues to use some sort of voodoo, witchcraft magic to manipulate his players into signing long-term, extremely team-friendly deals that give the front office a massive amount of room on the payroll. From Ozzie Albies to Ronald Acuna Jr. to Matt Olson to Michael Harris II (SOMEHOW), the Braves are locked and loaded now, and for the future. Harris II had one breakout year and the Braves immediately locked him up for eight years. This team is going to be very good for a long time, and at no expense to the present. The rotation looks to be underrated and dominant, led by Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and perhaps Mike Soroka (don’t forget how good he was before he tore his Achilles twice). Every series between Atlanta and Philadelphia/New York will be absolutely electric this season, but the Braves have put themselves in a fantastic position to outlast both squads. 

One storyline to watch: Huascar Ynoa’s return from injury. Ynoa is a young starter who looked very solid in a small sample size in 2021, before he was battered with injuries that limited him to under 10 innings in 2022. A strong return from Ynoa would be the nail in the coffin for other NL East hopefuls.

1. Houston Astros

The reigning champs have the best roster in the league. Besides Justin Verlander, they didn’t lose much of anything. They lost Carlos Correa and replaced him with Jeremy Pena, who promptly won World Series MVP. They lost George Springer and promptly replaced him with Kyle Tucker, who looks to be another perennial All-Star. They lost Justin Verlander, but they still have Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., and Cristian Javier. As much as I want the Astros to eternally battle with mediocrity as punishment for their behavior in 2017, Houston’s title repeat hopes appear to be alive and well. They picked up Jose Abreu for some help at first following the departure of Trey Mancini; other than that, their roster hasn’t changed much, and we all remember how dominant they were last season. The AL West runs through Houston until further notice. 

One storyline to watch: Michael Brantley’s injury issues. He’s played more than 100 games once in the last three seasons, limited to just 64 in 2022; when he has played, however, he’s been the same old consistently-dangerous Michael Brantley we’re used to. A full season from Brantley could push the Astros further atop the division, and provide the right amount of depth in case of injuries to other key pieces of the Houston squad. 

Do me a favor and forget I ever wrote this when I’m inevitably incorrect by June. I’d rather not end up on FreezingColdTakes this year. Anyways, if you made it this far, thanks so much for reading! Looking forward to another great season, so stay tuned for some heavy-duty baseball content this summer!

Emory