MLB April in Review: Surprises, Letdowns, and Predictions

We’re a month into the season and in some ways, my Power Rankings look pretty disastrous. In others, they’re flourishing! Such is life early in the baseball season. Here’s a look at the surprises and the disappointments (sometimes they’re the same thing) so far in 2024, along with my unofficial official way-too-early playoff predictions.

Houston Astros

Don’t say I didn’t warn you. I expressed concern about the Astros’ depth, especially pitching-wise, and ability to compete with the reigning World Champions. Ultimately, I gave them the benefit of the doubt at #5. They’re not even second in the division, settling into a tie for fourth with the lowly Los Angeles Angels. As of this writing, they have a 12-22 record. The Oakland Athletics, the consensus worst team in the league during the preseason, hover just a game below .500 at 17-18, five games ahead of the Astros in the division. Houston has dropped series against the Nationals and Cubs, among many others. 

The lineup is solid enough (besides Jose Abreu, who continues his dramatic downslide into retirement). It’s the pitching that’s sinking the ship, a departure from precedent but not a surprising one. Injuries to Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier tested Houston’s depth early, and the likes of Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrigheti, and J.P. France have not been able to fill that void; Verlander’s return from injury has been encouraging, but they still lack the starpower they were expecting. Framber Valdez, who would have been in the running for the Cy Young last season barring injury issues, has not been himself, posting just a 95 ERA+ so far in 2024. Owner Jim Crane stated that the window of competition will always remain open as long as he’s around, and AL executives don’t appear worried about the Astros’ ability to rebound, but I really wouldn’t be surprised to see them fail to compete for the AL West title. The Rangers and Mariners appear, in my eyes, to be better built for success right now. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking. 

Basically the entire AL Central 

Here’s something that is not surprising: The Guardians and the Twins are competing for the AL Central title at the moment. Last season, that took the form of the Twins winning the Central with only 87 wins as the Guardians fell back behind the Tigers, well behind .500. In 2024, the Guardians are 22-12, 2.5 games ahead of the pack. And the Twins aren’t alone in second, either; surprise! It’s the Kansas City Royals, 20-15 so far in 2024. There aren’t many true standouts on offense for the Royals, but it’s a few of the regular suspects: Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr., and… Salvador Perez, who is hitting .328 with a team-leading 169 OPS+??? Perez is actually only 34 years old, and the Royals are certainly glad that he has expressed such a strong desire to stay in Kansas City, even if they just thought they were getting veteran mentorship at this point in his career. Oh, and if this OPS+ holds, it will be his highest ever. Another All-Star appearance looms on the horizon for Salvy. 

We can’t just look at the batting, though, especially when it’s generally mediocre outside of those three. It’s the pitching staff that has put in the work. In my power rankings, I said…

Neither Lugo nor Wacha are bad pitchers by any means, but they also don’t qualify as aces, and the rest of the rotation is inconsistent at best and unserviceable at worst.

I was half right. Wacha has been mediocre, posting a 5.50 ERA and a 74 ERA+ but a respectable 3.85 FIP. Lugo, though, has been ridiculously solid. Like, 1.60 ERA, 253 ERA+ solid. The FIP suggests regression is imminent, but it’s refreshing to see good pitching in Kansas City for once. Brady Singer was my X-Factor, and he has more than met that expectation so far. His 2.45 ERA is a bit more in-line with his FIP, but a 165 ERA+ is a blessing that the Royals could not have foreseen. Honorable mentions go to Cole Ragans for being another solid, consistent arm, and to Jordan Lyles for not starting a game in 2024. Good move, Royals!

Back to the rest of the division, though. The Tigers are in fourth (not surprising) with a winning record, 18-16 (very surprising). The White Sox are in last (not surprising) and have yet to break double-digits in the wins column (goodness gracious. The worst record in the league, equalled only by the Colorado Rockies). The Twins have been on an absolute tear, finally losing a 12-game winning streak that propelled them back into division title conversations. But the Guardians continue to play winning baseball, and it would not be surprising at all to see them win the division. 

The Phillies and the Nationals

Maybe I’m reaching here, but the Phillies lead the Braves by 2.5 games now in a lead that has steadily grown over the past week. Atlanta has struggled to get its stars going offensively and just lost Spencer Strider for the rest of 2024 to surgery, who was the odds-on NL Cy Young winner. The Braves have depth in spades and will make the playoffs, but their chokehold on the NL East is in question. 

Let’s get to the fun stuff, though: the Nationals are in third place right now, exactly .500 at 17-17. They lead the Mets by a game and the Marlins by 8 games. They have a bona fide All-Star shortstop in CJ Abrams, not to mention major emergences/resurgences in Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jacob Young. Don’t look now, but Ildemaro Vargas has been excellent as well. On the pitching side, Josiah Gray has yet to repeat his All-Star success from 2023, but he’s currently on the shelf with an injury. The current rotation features five starters, and all of them (except for Patrick Corbin, of course) have an ERA+ above league average. Who would’ve predicted that the rotation would be a strength for the Nationals this season? Sure, there will probably be regression, but Gray probably won’t have a 14.04 ERA, either. There’s a lot to like; I really think we could see postseason baseball in Washington by next year, and that’s not something I could’ve imagined during the offseason. 

A fun specific stat: Trevor Williams has a 178 ERA+ and a 2.27 ERA (both team-highs). His FIP is 2.90, barely higher than his ERA, which could suggest that it’s not a fluke. Maybe Williams really has taken a major step forward. If that’s the case, it would be just one of a slew of positive developments in DC lately. 

Sneaky Contenders + Playoff Predictions

The league is overloaded with contenders. Even with the expanded playoffs, there are too many underperforming contenders and surprise squads to fit into a 12-team format. 

Underperforming contenders: Rays, Blue Jays, Astros, Reds, Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants

Surprise squads: Red Sox, Royals, Athletics (??), Cubs, Nationals

Here’s how I think the playoffs will play out, based on what I’ve seen so far. 

National League

NL East: Atlanta Braves. The Phillies are hot right now and the Braves are feeling Strider’s absence, but their offense has yet to find its rhythm. They’ll be fine, and the Phillies will still make the playoffs. 

NL Central: Chicago Cubs. The Brewers lead right now, but I’ve loved the Cubs’ roster construction since the offseason, and I think they show more sustainable pitching than Milwaukee. Imanaga might not pitch to a sub-1.00 ERA, but he’s an ace. 

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers. It’ll be a battle for second in the West, as the Dodgers have already asserted their dominance over there.

NL Wild Cards: Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks. The Phillies and Brewers will be close in the division race all year. The third spot is much harder to project; the DBacks have struggled mightily, but I’m not ready to give up on the Snakes just yet. I think they’ll figure it out, and the Padres won’t be able to keep up. 

American League

AL East: Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees are regrettably playing as expected, but Baltimore looks to have built a true juggernaut. Jackson Holliday might not be contributing yet, but he will be sooner rather than later; until then, the O’s are still a force to be reckoned with. 

AL Central: Minnesota Twins. I’m just not sure I see the vision for the Guardians, who are leading the division with a rotation packed with bloated ERAs and disappointing ERA+ values. Maybe that’s a sign that they’re actually underperforming, and their true ceiling is much higher. Or, they’re getting lucky right now, and they will come back to Earth. I’m banking on the latter, along with the higher talent ceiling of the Twins to carry them back to the top of the Central. Don’t count out the Royals, though, especially considering that they appear to have built something sustainable. 

AL West: Seattle Mariners. It’s pitching vs. hitting here: the Mariners have built an incredibly strong, relatively young rotation, and the Rangers have struggled to pitch but continue to rely upon major run production to outpace opponents. Which approach is more sustainable? Your guess is as good as mine, but I’m always going to err on the side of strong pitching to win ballgames. I think the Mariners have room to grow on the offensive side of the ball, too, so I would not be surprised to see this team get much, much better by the end of the year. 

AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Rangers, Guardians. So many great options here, and it’s basically impossible to predict. The Yankees would probably win any other division. I think the Rangers are gonna pick it up significantly, even if their pitching is questionable. Same deal with Arizona, really: I’m betting on Texas to rediscover the formula they found last year. The third spot will be even tighter than in the National League. I could see the Red Sox, Royals, or Rays all sweeping in here, but I’ll ride with Cleveland until they prove me wrong. 

Man, I love baseball.

Emory