2024 MLB Power Rankings

I wrote a full intro for this piece in early February. This took a ridiculously long time, and it’s long enough already, so I’m throwing that out the window and simply appreciating the fact that spring is here, and with it, baseball is BACK! It's just barely Opening Day and we already have significant injuries, a major free-agent starting pitcher who has yet to be signed (this isn’t true anymore thanks to Arizona, but late free-agent signings really muddied the waters this offseason) and a gambling scandal (Ippei and Shohei). What’s better than this? 

Let's do some power rankings. Worst to best. If you don't wanna read all that, scroll through and find the team you care about. Whatever floats your boat.

30. Oakland Athletics (2023 record: 50 - 112)

No brainer. Seeing as the Athletics won't be in Oakland for much longer, I don't expect management (read: John Fisher) to work very hard on improving a squad that was unbelievably awful in 2023.

That being said, it's hard to envision a worse squad in 2024, so I expect to see some marginal improvement, even if it matters little in the long-term. Two moves I like: the additions of veteran pitchers Alex Wood and Ross Stripling, both of whom are capable arms that could serve to make the rotation watchable, if still subpar. There's still little young talent to get excited about in Oakland, a harbinger of a long, painful rebuild.

X-Factor: Esteury Ruiz

Ruiz displayed game-breaking speed last season, dwarfed only by Ronald Acuna Jr. If Ruiz can make harder contact more often and get the bat involved, he'll be a trade piece or an exciting future Las Vegas Athletic. I talked about Ruiz midseason last year, but little has changed since then, unfortunately.

29. Colorado Rockies (2023: 59 - 103)

2023 was the season the Rockies went from mediocre to truly miserable. 2024 will be no different because, per usual, the Rockies have done nothing to improve. There is not a team in the league with less recognizable names, and while that's not necessarily a representation of talent, it does show that the Rockies are not trying. The top article on the Rockies' page on MLB.com states their goal for 2024 as, and I quote, to "create chaos at Coors". So their goal is to... win at home? If that's the kind of article being written about the Rockies right now, I have no faith in their ability to compete

Side note: I really want the Rockies to be good. I love Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant. Elias Diaz is underrated. German Marquez has been making the best of pitching in Coors for what feels like my entire life. Cal Quantrill was a good pickup who deserves another shot. Still, I cannot justify predicting any level of improvement as long as the Rockies don't try to improve.

X-Factor: Kris Bryant

The Rockies finally made a major free-agent splash when they signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million deal before the 2022 season. Since then, Bryant has played in 122 games in two seasons, putting up acceptable stats in 2022 and awful stats in 2023. It was a weird fit from the start, but Bryant has plenty of time to redeem himself in Colorado; to do that, he has to stave off the injuries that have nagged him for three consecutive seasons.

28. Kansas City Royals (2023: 56 - 106)

I tried really, really hard to find some way to bump the Royals up a spot because I truly don’t believe that they will end up as the third-worst team in the league, but it’s hard to look at this roster and see the vision. The lineup is extremely young but not overflowing with talent. It’s a unique situation to be in: lots of youth, not many plug-and-play veterans, but still not a ton to be excited about.

That’s not to say there’s nothing to look forward to. Bobby Witt Jr. is a bona fide superstar. Salvador Perez is always fun and will continue to bring his leadership to a young squad. Vinnie Pasquantino will hopefully avoid injury and play a full season, and I loved the move to get Adam Frazier as an additional infield/outfield piece. 

The lineup is mediocre at best, but the real issues arise when you look at the rotation. Headlined by Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, followed by Brady Singer, Cole Ragans and notorious innings-eater Jordan Lyles. Neither Lugo nor Wacha are bad pitchers by any means, but they also don’t qualify as aces, and the rest of the rotation is inconsistent at best and unserviceable at worst. Jordan Lyles threw 177.2 (!!!) innings and put up an unappetizing 6.28 ERA for the Royals in 2023, so the fact that he returns in 2024 is an indictment of a general lack of progress within the organization’s farm system. If he’s still pitching at the end of the season, the Royals truly were the third-worst team in the league.

X-Factor: Brady Singer

Looking at that rotation, it has to be Singer, right? There’s too much talent for Singer not to take a major step forward in 2024, and it would make an outsized difference considering the rest of the rotation. Having rotational stability for just one or two games a week goes a long way for a rebuilding squad, and Singer is perhaps the most likely candidate to become a strong first or second starter. 

27. Los Angeles Angels (2023: 73 - 89)

The Angels gambled on one final season with Shohei Ohtani and lost in crippling fashion. Now, they have neither Ohtani nor a postseason berth since 2014, when they were swept by the Royals in the ALDS. Mike Trout finally took a stance on the Angels’ willingness to compete, saying that he would like to see some moves made, going so far as to indicate that he would be open to a trade in the future if things continue to go south in Anaheim. Congratulations to the Angels, who have finally managed to alienate one of the least controversial stars in baseball. They’ve already proven that having Trout is not enough to find sustained success, and they’ve made no impact moves to improve around him. I like the Zach Plesac acquisition, but Plesac remains a wild card and a character concern. Speaking of character concerns, Anthony Rendon, who will be paid the most money of any Angel in 2024 (yes, more than Mike Trout), clearly does not want to play baseball anymore. So that’s… quite unfortunate for a squad relying on his eventual resurgence. 

The rotation looks grim. The front office seems to be gambling on comeback seasons from key starters Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez and Patrick Sandoval. That’s a parlay with a lot of legs. Safe to say Anaheim will struggle in 2024, even more so than expected. 

X-Factor: Zach Neto

Neto was, by all accounts, rushed into action for a desperate Angels squad last season. They needed a spark plug to ignite a run because they knew that Ohtani would not be enough to carry them across the finish line, and I have a fundamental problem with potentially ruining the development of a newly-drafted young ballplayer for a futile, last-ditch attempt at a playoff run that most likely would have yielded no real success, in the unlikely event that they even made it. Regardless, Neto is a Major League ballplayer in 2024 despite being drafted in 2023, and so the Angels need him to play above replacement-level in 2024. Youth is the key to surprise success for an otherwise-roughshod Angels team, and it starts, at least partially, with Zach Neto. 

26. Chicago White Sox (2023: 61 - 101)

A major collapse and ensuing sell-off characterized the latter half of Chicago’s 2023 season, as I predicted. Organizational incompetence will undoubtedly, inescapably destroy any team’s chance of competing in even the least competitive division. So goes the end of an inconceivably disappointing era for the White Sox. Still, this is slightly higher than I’ve seen the White Sox ranked, and I’m giving them this miniscule amount of credit because they made some sneaky yet savvy signings. Not plural, actually, just Erick Fedde, the former National who tore up the KBO and won the Choi Dong-won award (the Korean Cy Young). Pitching is the key to raising the floor of any team, and this team’s floor is higher than you might think. Dylan Cease will be a solid pitcher in 2024, despite underperforming last season. Michael Kopech, despite the injuries and underwhelming numbers, still possesses all the talent necessary to be a No. 3 starter on a solid squad. Mike Soroka is in the same boat, someone that just needs a change of scenery and a starting slot locked down to return to dominance. The rotation is solid enough to make up for an impressively bad starting lineup characterized by veteran fliers and underwhelming talent. Yeah, Luis Robert Jr. is a perennial All-Star, but no help behind him means lower production. Speaking of no help:

X-Factor(s): Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez

Is this finally the year? Moncada and Jimenez have been on the breakout watchlist for seemingly their entire careers, stunted by a combination of injuries and poor performances. There remains hope, however, that they might finally hit their strides, and maybe 2024 is their year! It has to be if the White Sox don’t want to ditch their playoff hopes right off the bat. (Also, did you know the White Sox have Andrew Benintendi and Paul DeJong? Not that that helps, but it’s just kinda weird). 

Have fun, South Siders!

25. Washington Nationals (2023: 71 - 91)

I stretched this as far as possible, but hear me out! 

Good moves and strong young talent abound in Washington. James Wood is the NL Rookie of the Year, and if it’s not Wood, it’s probably Dylan Crews. Robert Hassell III is showing promise in Spring Training. CJ Abrams is a future star, and Lane Thomas is a star right now. The pieces are all there!

That is, if you take a look at the rotation through rose-tinted glasses. Yeah, maybe Jake Irvin got absolutely shelled in Spring Training. We could be unlucky enough to see Patrick Corbin pitching third in the rotation in 2024. Still! Josiah Gray was an All-Star in 2023, and MacKenzie Gore has looked excellent thus far in ST. DJ Herz awaits his MLB debut after pitching very well in the minors after he was acquired from the Cubs in 2023. Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge still have yet to get extensive looks in the majors. The potential is just shocking, even if the results have yet to appear substantively. 

A few honorable mentions: Brady House, the starting third baseman for the 2026 Washington Nationals. Trey Lipscomb, the starting third or first baseman for the 2027 Washington Nationals. And, of course, Tommy White, the future 2024 first-round pick who will be arriving in Washington sooner rather than later. The future is so unbelievably bright, if you hold your eyes open just right. 

X-Factor: Joey Gallo (and other associated veteran fliers)

The 2023 Nationals were successful not because of their eventual record, but because of the rebuilding progress they made. Jeimer Candelario was a successful veteran flier that was flipped for DJ Herz, a potential impact pitcher for a future Nats squad. Similar deals made by the Nats in 2024 could reap similar rewards. Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker both come to mind, but the prize of the offseason was Joey Gallo, the former All-Star slugger who steadily declined following his time with the Rangers. Gallo is the definition of a three-true-outcomes ballplayer; every at bat, Gallo gives you a moonshot, a walk, or a strikeout. On a Nationals squad lacking game-changing power, Gallo adds an entirely new dynamic to a speedy, young lineup, not to mention the deadline trade value he could add if he can hit above .220. I love the acquisition, but time will certainly tell. 

24. Pittsburgh Pirates (2023: 76 - 86)

This is the dividing line between competitive teams and bottom-feeders, and it’s somewhat unclear where the Pirates fall in that regard. On the one hand, it’s easy to spot all the young talent on this squad, from Connor Joe to Ke’Bryan Hayes to Jack Suwinski. These players, amongst others, should be due for major progression this time around. The rotation is in a similar position, starting with Mitch Keller. On the other hand, stopgap veterans remain critical to Pittsburgh’s success right now, and that’s not indicative of a competitive team. Unfortunately for Pirates fans, this team remains a year or so away from being ready to compete, but the good news is that the front office should be prepared, sooner rather than later, to make win-now moves. That’ll depend on the outcome of 2024.

The good news: there’s a lot to enjoy. The Oneil Cruz Show should be in full swing in 2024, and I expect the Pirates to be buyers at the deadline. 

X-Factor: Andrew McCutchen

Not in terms of production, but his presence on this squad will be crucial both in terms of fan base morale and leadership. McCutchen has endless wisdom to dish out to the stars of the future in Pittsburgh as a former Pirate All-Star himself. He’s earned a retirement tour on a better-than-mediocre Pirates team. 

23. Detroit Tigers (2023: 78 - 84)

It’s gotta be time for this team, right? Not quite, and I’ll explain why. The Tigers are a trendy breakout pick this season due to a stronger rotation and a lineup full of young stars who have either arrived or will arrive shortly. They locked up Colt Keith, their shortstop of the future, on a discount. That’s the thing to do nowadays, with front offices across the league seemingly deciding that it’s better to eat a moderate amount of cap on a lottery ticket than to lose generational talent because they can’t afford the 400 million dollar payday five years from now. Keith has yet to play his first MLB game.

The rotation is a bit stronger, headlined by veterans Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty. I’ve been waiting on the Flaherty resurgence for a few seasons; if that’s this year, that front end becomes far stronger. Beyond those two, things get younger and sketchier; Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal are both prime breakout candidates, but they also remain injury-prone and young, two major risk factors to rely on. The lineup features young slugger Spencer Torkelson, who I’m still not sold on. Javy Baez and Mark Canha feature as the two aging veterans eating up cap space (mostly Baez), but other young stars pepper this lineup. Riley Greene simply needs to avoid injury to become the perennial All-Star we know he can be. Keith will be up to the bigs sooner rather than later. Kerry Carpenter will feature prominently. There’s young talent, but not enough established big-league level play to convince me Detroit is for real in 2024. I would love to be proven wrong here. 

X-Factor: Riley Greene

Like I said, Greene is a perennial All-Star at his ceiling. At his floor, he’s injured, as we’ve seen since he entered the league. Elite defense and strong hitting are enough to make a huge impact in an otherwise-sparse lineup, so the Tigers absolutely need Greene to play most of the 2024 season if they want to make a playoff run. 

22. Cleveland Guardians (2023: 76 - 86)

The Guardians have their work cut out for them in their first season without Terry Francona at the helm since 2012. Stephen Vogt is a fun hire, but filling Francona’s shoes is a tall task, and the former cult favorite catcher has to prove quickly he’s up to it. 

The Guardians benefit from having a solidly entrenched rotation to enter the season, barring any major injuries. Bieber, McKenzie, Williams, Bibee and Allen will take the majority of the starts; it’s always a good sign when a club has the rotation figured out early. The bullpen is similarly solid, featuring star closer Emmanuel Clase. 

The problem is that the 2023 Guardians had the worst offense in the league, and they’ve done little to fix it. The usual suspects will provide above-average defensive play and mediocre offense (except for Jose Ramirez): Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, Myles Straw and the Naylor brothers. Players like Austin Hedges and Ramon Laureano do not contribute offensively. Again, none of these names are new, which is the crux of the issue. Power has to come from somewhere, but the Guardians are running on empty. 

X-Factor: Jose Ramirez

When nothing changes, the good things must remain the same. J-Ram has to be the offensive motor in Cleveland; in an era defined by home run power, Ramirez is one of the only players on this squad that can provide it. In the absence of major moves in free agency or through trades, it’s as simple as hoping the good players keep producing at an elite level. 

21. Boston Red Sox (2023: 78 - 84)

The Red Sox had a confusing enough offseason that I’m having difficulty figuring out what to make of their team. I thought their rotation would be decent enough, but they traded away Chris Sale, got Lucas Giolito, and promptly discovered that Giolito may miss the entire season with a UCL tear. Behind Giolito, things look exceptionally shaky.

In the lineup, a strong young infield is the Red Sox primary hope in 2024; Triston Casas will be a star, but Devers and Story have to live up to their end of the monster contracts they hold. Outfielder Masataka Yoshida remains an unknown, but he could provide a much-needed spark if he takes another step forward. An odd trade sent Alex Verdugo to New York, only to promptly replace him with Tyler O’Neill, who is arguably worse and more injury-prone. It’s young unknowns across the board beyond that. The Red Sox could be five spots above or below this when June comes around; if I had to bet, I wouldn’t bet on their success. 

X-Factor: Brayan Bello

The rotation looks sketchy, so it’s time for Bello to take the next big step forward in his development as a major-league ace. The Red Sox just extended him for the next six years on a major discount ($55 million), and when I say just, I mean after I’d already written this part. Boston is all-in on Bello, just one more reason for him to develop starting in 2024. 

20. Milwaukee Brewers (2023: 92 - 70)

After years of consistent performance, the Brewers look poised to take a major step back in 2024. The days of a two-ace rotation fronted by Burnes and Woodruff have passed, and the Brewers failed to reap the rewards; they have more to worry about than a lack of offensive production. The Rhys Hoskins acquisition certainly helps their cause, and having William Contreras looks better and better with each passing day. Signing Jackson Chourio to a long-term deal will probably pay off big time, similarly to Colt Keith on the Tigers. Beyond that, a lot rides on major development from the likes of Sal Frelick and Brice Turang, as well as the newly-acquired third baseman Joey Ortiz. There’s some fun upside on this squad, but the floor is very, very low. 

The rotation is in shambles. The fact that Joe Ross is on this team should say enough, but I’ll more thoroughly explain that Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley is not a strong 1-2 punch, certainly in the wake of Burnes and Woodruff. And, of course, the Brewers lost the best manager in the bigs to a record-breaking deal with the Cubs, their NL Central rival. Replacing Craig Counsell is as hard a task as any; manager Pat Murphy and the Brewers face hard times in 2024.

X-Factor: Christian Yelich

Yelich actually put up excellent numbers in 2023, to surprisingly little acclaim. Perhaps 2023 was simply the expectation considering his MVP-level play in 2018-19. Regardless, Yelich will be expected to carry the load on this Brewers’ team. 

19. St. Louis Cardinals (2023: 71 - 91)

It would be foolhardy to predict the Cardinals returning to their pre-2023 heights, but I certainly don’t think a repeat last-place finish in the NL Central is realistic either. The Cardinals sought to improve their pitching staff, and that’s exactly what they did, picking up Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Gray is obviously the prize of the bunch, but those three should significantly bolster a rotation that struggled mightily in 2023. Add in some breakout seasons from young stars Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker, and you’ve got yourself a sneaky contender! I don’t see the Cardinals making noise in the playoffs, but I do see them improving significantly upon last year and pushing off the rebuild for the foreseeable future. I also expect Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt to play up to their usual standard, which ranges anywhere from above-replacement to MVP candidate. Generally speaking, the Cardinals are being slept on; the bar was high, and a down year immediately tanked hopes for 2024. No World Series trophies will be lifted in St. Louis this season, but to dismiss them as basement-dwellers would be foolish. 

X-Factor: Jordan Walker

2023 was supposed to be the arrival of Jordan Walker, a momentous occasion resulting in much fanfare and an NL Rookie of the Year award. Instead, Walker scuffled in the bigs and was sent back down to the minors for a large part of the season. Walker has all the talent in the world, and he will put it together; it’s just a question of when. The Cardinals could certainly benefit from him putting it together sooner rather than later, and I expect him to do so. 

18. New York Mets (2023: 75 - 87) 

The Mets are one more disappointing season away from a complete teardown. Owner Steve Cohen has proven time and time again that baseball teams cannot simply throw money at problems and win championships. Players like Max Scherzer, Javy Baez and Jacob deGrom could only do so much, regardless of how much they get paid. Smart decisions will always pay off far more in the long run. 

The Mets have not made a smart decision in a very long time. The rotation is extremely roughshod behind ace Kodai Senga; signings like Luis Severino and Sean Manaea do little to add a true second starter to the mix. It’s not as if the starting pitcher market was particularly thin; perhaps Cohen has realized he doesn’t feel like investing to the same degree as before, or perhaps players simply don’t want to play for the Mets, who have about as bad a reputation as they’ve ever had. The bottom line is that the rotation is not going to cut it for 162 games, and so the Mets will not make the playoffs unless they make another major move or two in the free agent market, or trade for a big name at the deadline. 

The lineup is alright, but it suffers from the same concerns as last season, namely reliance upon young stars Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez to figure it out in the big leagues. Pete Alonso will hit .230 and slug 50 homers, and Francisco Lindor will be the 2nd- or 3rd-best shortstop in the National League, but none of it will be enough without a little rotational help and an infusion of youth. The minor league system is strong but young. Expect little from the Mets in 2024 and much more from the Mets in 2025. Points for having a relatively consistent lineup, deducted for that rotation; having to watch Jose Quintana pitch every fifth day is gonna be painful for Mets fans. 

X-Factor: Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo has put up identically excellent stats in each of the last three years. Mets fans would love to see him make the jump to All-Star caliber, especially if they want to compete a year early; Nimmo has room to grow, but at least he can be counted on as a consistently solid offensive presence. 

17. San Diego Padres (2023: 82 - 80)

The Padres still have expectations despite losing a ton of production entering this season. A core group of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will not be held down for long, but they can also only do so much to drag this team across the finish line, especially if pitching is as big of an issue as it seems. The Juan Soto deal was necessary and beneficial, although quite regrettable considering the unbelievable talent they gave away in the trade with the Nationals (HAHAHA). Still, four solid young pitchers is nothing to scoff at. The issue? None of them can replace Blake Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young award winner. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish will have to step up in a big way, but that 1-2 punch is nothing to scoff at. It’s the rest of the rotation and the rest of the lineup that looks concerning. 

Where should expectations be for San Diego? They have to try their darndest to compete; there’s no question about that. I would still be surprised to see them make a playoff run in 2024. 

X-Factor: Ha-Seong Kim

The shortstop will undoubtedly play high-quality defense at a tough position, but Kim still has room to grow with the bat. A 110 OPS+ in 2023 is nothing to scoff at; still, more production never hurt anyone, and another step forward for Kim would go a long way toward propelling the Padres well above their floor. 

16. Miami Marlins (2023: 84 - 78)

The Sandy Alcantara-led Marlins are probably Wild Card-worthy. Unfortunately, Alcantara will miss the entirety of the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The bad news is that the rotation is young after him, and the lineup is contact-heavy and somewhat weak. The good news is that the rotation, while young, is also wildly talented. Eury Perez was essentially an ace on an innings limit last season; hopefully he’ll be an ace without one this year. The Marlins could go a few ways with the rest of the rotation, but it will almost certainly feature Edward Cabrera (barring injury issues) and Jesus Luzardo (who looks to take a big step forward). The young pitching on this squad is the envy of every competitive team, so the Marlins can afford to ship off a strong pitching prospect for a solid lineup boost if the deadline rolls around and Miami remains in contention. 

The Marlins had a quiet offseason but made a splash by signing star shortstop Tim Anderson to a 1-year deal. Anderson should significantly benefit an otherwise quiet lineup featuring base hit machine Luis Arraez and slugger Josh Bell, as well as some young guys who could break out, like Bryan De La Cruz. All in all, this Marlins squad looks stronger than in 2023 but a few injuries here or there would decimate their rotation and/or lineup, and they require some major progress from a lot of positions to be competitive. I don’t see the Marlins making a deep playoff run, but a Wild Card berth seems more realistic than it did a few months ago. 

X-Factor: Luis Arraez

The Marlins are one of few teams where the lineup is far more questionable than the rotation. Arraez is the motor that drives what offensive production the Marlins do manage to put out, so he needs to be himself once again in 2024. 

15. San Francisco Giants (2023: 79 - 83)

The Giants had an underrated offseason, picking up Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Jung Hoo Lee, among others. I’m higher on the Giants than most, so hear me out. 

The Giants have been underrated since last season, although they didn’t perform particularly well. Strong young talent is evident throughout this team, as well as some hidden gems, like Michael Conforto and Thairo Estrada (big Estrada supporter here). Sure, the rotation is sketchy, but Logan Webb is a true ace and the Giants have some strong starters behind him, like Jordan Hicks (assuming he can make the reliever-to-starter transition) and Kyle Harrison. Lots has to go right for the Giants in 2024, but I’m gonna let the Giants ride as my bold prediction for the surprise team of the season, at least for now. 

Side note: who wouldn’t love to see a Pablo Sandoval resurgence? 

UPDATE: Giants signed Blake Snell, who immediately slots in as their second ace. GIANTS ARE SO BACK. In three months, this will be way too low. 

X-Factor: Camilo Doval

It’s odd making the closer an X-Factor, but Doval has a case as the best closer in the National League at just 26 years of age. 39 saves, 87 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP are extremely strong numbers. Consistent lockdown outings from Doval would give the rotation some breathing room as the young starters hit their stride. 

14. Cincinnati Reds (2023: 82 - 80)

The return of the Reds seems like a foregone conclusion, but I would like to provide an important disclaimer along with this ranking: the Reds need just as much, if not more, to go right for them in 2024 compared to any other squad in the league. An 80-game suspension to Noelvi Marte, the Reds’ top prospect and expected starter at third base, significantly simplified their infield logjam; several other prospects will get extended looks at infield positions during his suspension, but the Reds will certainly miss his raw talent during a pivotal season in Cincinnati's comeback story. There’s no question as to the talent on this team; top to bottom, this lineup has the potential to be deadly while still playing excellent defense, something that can’t be said for most teams in the league. The Jeimer Candelario signing looks better in the wake of Marte’s suspension; he’ll bring a consistent bat and strong leadership for young stars like Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and freak athlete Elly De La Cruz. 

The key to it all, however, is the rotation. In the Reds’ first winning season (excluding 2021, which I completely forgot about, as well as 2020 because of the 60-game season) since 2013, pitching was the limiting factor. Crucial young starters like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft were hardly serviceable; Andrew Abbott, a late-season call-up (WAHOOWA), was the most successful of the starters, but not quite a true ace. The Reds did little to improve the rotation in 2024, seemingly content to bank on significant progress from their 2023 starters. Acquiring Frankie Montas adds one veteran starter, but the onus of progress rests upon the shoulders of the youth in Cincinnati. Much could go right in 2024 for the Reds, but things could also go horribly, horribly wrong, and Joey Votto won’t be there to give the Reds something to cheer for, the first season in Cincinnati without Votto since 2007. 

X-Factor: Andrew Abbott

More development is needed for the other starters, but Abbott must simply replicate his 2023 season over a full set of games in 2024. Not only would that set a great example for the other young starters finding their rhythms, but it would also give the Reds reliable starting one game out of every five, a major indicator of success for any emerging team. 

13. Chicago Cubs (2023: 83 - 79)

I know this is bold, but something about how the Cubs have rebuilt this squad after steadily shipping off the 2016 World Series core has me believing in Chicago. After much dilly-dallying the Cubs finally re-signed Cody Bellinger, a huge step in the right direction. Bellinger headlines a strong core featuring Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki (who continues to be quietly productive), Ian Happ, and Nico Hoerner. Their rotation isn’t mind-blowing, but it is consistent and filled with veterans; Justin Steele was stellar in 2023, and he’s followed by the ageless Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon, and few other potential back-end starters. The guy in the middle: Shoto Imanaga, the lesser-known Japanese import who pitched excellently in the NPB and has all the skills necessary to be a strong, front-end starter in MLB play. Much of the productivity of the Cubs’ rotation rests upon Imanaga adjusting quickly. 

Some unknowns include the play of Nick Madrigal, the highly-touted young infielder from the White Sox who has played quite poorly since his arrival in the North Side. Michael Busch, acquired from the Dodgers as an infield utility player and power bat, needs to make an impact. The bullpen is one big unknown, but they have some quality pieces in place that they need to put together correctly. Chicago has something cooking, if you look hard enough. Top half of the league? Questionable, but I’m rolling with the Cubs. 

X-Factor: Christopher Morel

I’m not sure what the Cubs are doing with Morel. Every year he finds his way back and forth between the minors and the major league club, and every year he returns from the minors and has a huge impact. I think 2024 is the Morel Breakout Year; Chicago certainly hopes so. Morel brings unparalleled energy to a young team, which is a dangerous thing for the rest of the league.

12. Tampa Bay Rays (2023: 99 - 63)

Maybe this is recency bias speaking, but the Rays always find a way to do more with way, way less. They took the same approach as usual, trading away expensive players nearing the end of cheaper contracts as opposed to extending/re-signing them, and it might have hit them harder than usual this time around; losing Tyler Glasnow is a huge blow, obviously, but with Shane McClanahan out for at least the first half of the 2024 season after undergoing surgery, the Rays will be scrambling to find solid pitching. Luckily for them, they have years of experience picking pitchers out of their farm system that are major-league ready, and I don’t expect this season to be any different. Zach Eflin is a solid Opening Day starter who can lead the young starters throughout the season as they’re forced to adjust quickly.

The lineup looks similar to last season, led by Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena (who the Rays hope can figure out how to hit throughout the regular season at the same rate as the postseason). That’s a better core than the Rays get credit for. Junior Caminero, Tampa’s highly-touted infield prospect, will not make the Opening Day roster, but he should be called up sometime in 2024.

And, of course, it’s impossible to ignore the Wander Franco situation; somehow, it remains unclear whether or not Franco will play with the Rays at some point in the future. His replacement, Jose Caballero, obviously has big shoes to fill. The Rays will miss his production, but at least he’s not an awful person! This Rays team will be better off without Franco, but they’ll need to find production quickly if the current lineup iteration lacks firepower. 

X-Factor: The Bullpen

The Rays love their bullpen, and for good reason. There are a ton of quality arms in the pen, including but not limited to Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Phil Maton and Colin Poche. Several other guys are in the mix for bullpen/rotation spots, but the point is that the Rays do not lack pitching depth. It’s more of a question of if these guys can pitch at above-average levels consistently and give the Rays some really good rotation/long relief options to rely on while their young starters + McClanahan recover from injury. If they can, look out. 

11. Minnesota Twins (2023: 87 - 75)

The Twins benefit heavily from playing in a weak division, but there’s more to this team than simply being less mediocre than the Guardians. The lineup has so much starpower, and most/all of it is finally healthy. Byron Buxton is always an MVP candidate when healthy, as he appears to be now. Carlos Correa appears to have figured his heel issues out, Max Kepler remains a dangerous weapon in the outfield, and Royce Lewis is primed for a huge breakout year after showing flashes of major firepower in 2023. Alex Kirilloff remains on breakout watch as well. The rest of the lineup is full of savvy veterans or young guys, but there are no gaping holes here. The Twins should run through the AL Central behind their bats.

The pitching is a slightly different story. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober form a solid trio at the top, but an injury to newly acquired veteran Anthony DeSclafani leaves the rest of the rotation in disarray. Chris Paddack struggled in limited action last year, so it remains to be seen if he’s an MLB-quality starter or not; Louie Varland, the fifth starter for the time being, had an excellent spring but pitched only serviceably in 2023 through just 68 innings. All in all, it’s certainly not a bad rotation, but it’s rough enough to knock the Twins down a peg from other elite contenders. Still, if the young guys take some steps forward (just like almost every other team), the Twins will be worth watching in 2024. 

X-Factor: Byron Buxton

I say it every single year: Buxton will win an MVP if he ever plays a full season. The last time he played over 92 games? 2017. The Twins desperately need Buxton to figure out how to stay healthy. The good news is that Buxton has had an extremely solid, injury-free spring, so perhaps 2024 will finally be his year. 

10. New York Yankees (2023: 82 - 80)

I’ve seen the Yankees projected much, much higher than this, but I’ll believe it when I see it. They were projected in the top 10 consistently before 2023, and look where they ended up: fourth in the AL East, and just one game above .500. 

There’s no overlooking the talent in New York, a fact only emphasized by their trade for Juan Soto, mortgaging their pitching future for one season of Soto in hopes of keeping him in pinstripes for years to come. Around Soto, it’s the same power-heavy lineup you’re used to: Rizzo, Stanton, Judge, LeMahieu, Torres, etc. The lights should be a bit dimmer for young shortstop Anthony Volpe, who is still expected to improve offensively (and defensively, despite somehow winning a Gold Glove). All in all, the lineup is rock solid, barring injuries and assuming these guys play to expectations (which, as always in New York, is a dangerous assumption). 

The rotation could go either way. Nestor Cortes will start Opening Day for the Yanks due to a devastating Gerrit Cole injury that will sideline Cole for at least a month. Behind Cortes, Carlos Rodon looks to meet the expectations baked into a 6-year, $162 million contract (shockingly, a 6.85 ERA and -0.9 WAR do not count as “meeting expectations”). Marcus Stroman, the Yankees’ other shiny new offseason acquisition, needs to replicate his 2023 season with Chicago; I expect him to regress with the pressure off following a stellar walk year. Behind the big three (excluding Cole, for now) the rotation is young and unproven, which is a bad combination for New York pitching. 

Is this team World Series-bound? Perhaps. Am I a certified Yankees hater? Yes, I definitely am. Are they really the tenth-best team in the league? Who’s to say? The important thing is that the Yankees suck, and I will not give them credit for signing Soto and Stroman until they prove that their culture is World Series-winning, too. 

X-Factor: Gerrit Cole

It’s hard to overemphasize Cole’s importance on this squad, but we’re about to find out how much the rotation will miss him. His job is to return as fast as possible and perform at a Cy Young level for the rest of the year; great teams require true aces, and without Cole, the Yankees lack an ace. 

9. Seattle Mariners (2023: 88 - 74)

What to do with the Mariners? Everything pointed to a major breakout year for the Mariners; instead, they missed the playoffs (although just barely) and finished with a better record than the Twins, who made the playoffs by virtue of a remarkably weak division title. 

The lineup lacks holes, but it also lacks true superstar firepower (excluding, of course, Julio Rodriguez). Solid, big-league-caliber ballplayers permeate every layer of the lineup and the field, but again, it’s hard to bank on a good majority of these guys to have extraordinarily productive seasons; whether or not that’s an issue depends on how well the pitching performs. The rotation looks quite strong, led by Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, but injuries would quickly test a team without significant pitching depth. The bottom line is that I could see this team swinging significantly in either direction, so I won’t try to predict too much, but this prediction is on the slightly optimistic side. I would personally love to see Seattle have sustained success. 

X-Factor: Jorge Polanco

Everyone knows Polanco is a solid addition, but he’s also one of very few moves made by the Mariners this offseason. He needs to be as advertised, if not better, for a team that needs another star to support J-Rod. (This is probably interchangeable with any number of guys on this squad, but Polanco is the one I feel best about). 

8. Toronto Blue Jays (2023: 89 - 73)

The Blue Jays must feel like they’re living in a time loop. Year after year, Toronto hypes itself up and everyone hops on the hype train. Year after year, the Jays fall just below expectations, whether that means exiting immediately in the playoffs or missing them entirely. 

Sure, some of that has to do with life in the AL East; the Blue Jays won 91 games in 2021, yet they still missed the playoffs and finished fourth in their division. Still, they have yet to advance past the Wild Card round in their last three playoff appearances. Something has to give in Toronto, and they’re hoping the usual suspects can put it all together at once and surpass expectations for once. 

They didn’t quite stand pat this offseason, but additions like Justin Turner and Daniel Vogelbach don’t really change the Blue Jays’ outlook; Isaiah Kiner-Falefa could prove useful, or perhaps even surprisingly productive, without the bright lights of New York and their disgusting fanbase ignoring his utility value; still, the Jays are clearly banking on their talented core to find the formula for success, led by the likes of Guerrero Jr. and Bichette. 

Pitching will be especially critical, with a few wild cards in this rotation. Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi both seemed to find their forms after off years in previous seasons, but a regression would be pretty detrimental to the cause. There’s also the Alek Manoah question. What happened to him? Why did he turn into the worst pitcher in baseball history after placing third in Cy Young voting the season before? The Jays need to figure that out. Having Manoah pitch at half his usual capacity would be huge for a rotation relying on a lot of strong seasons from question marks at the same time; if Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Kikuchi and Manoah all pitch to 90% of their potential, Toronto could have the best rotation in the league. 

X-Factor: Daulton Varsho

All that talk about pitching, and yet Varsho is perhaps the most important cog in the machine. The Blue Jays traded Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the Diamondbacks for Varsho before last season, a trade that looks more and more questionable as the former two continue to play well and Varsho continues to struggle. The sooner Varsho plays to his All-Star-caliber talent, the less bad that trade looks. Right now, it looks mediocre at best; a breakout season would change everyone’s outlook on the decision to ship away two productive players for a lottery ticket and significantly boost the offense for the Jays. 

7. Arizona Diamondbacks (2023: 84 - 78)

I go back and forth on the realistic performance of the Dbacks, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. Their record actually surprised me a little; based on the hype and playoff performance, I would’ve expected a stronger number. Regardless, I expect them to reach a higher standard this season.

Their offseason was relatively quiet, with additions like Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suarez, who both provide strong veteran presences and competent bats. Pederson’s 30-homer power should complement Arizona’s focus on speed and defense quite well. The real progress should simply come from development; Corbin Carroll took the first step toward superstardom in 2023, and he is expected to keep getting better. Other young stars, namely Alek Thomas and Gabriel Moreno, should follow suit. The rotation was what held Arizona back last season, but the addition of Eduardo Rodriguez should mostly resolve that issue, giving the Dbacks and powerful front three of Zac Gallen, Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly. The bullpen is decent enough, led by 2023 deadline acquisition Paul Sewald, who will begin the season on the IL and put the bullpen in flux. 

It’ll come down, as it so often does, to the rotation. It was not ideal last year, but this team was still good enough to reach the World Series, and they’re earning some good grace as a result; there remains much to prove in 2024, but Arizona will certainly be fun to watch. 

X-Factor(s): Tommy Henry and Ryne Nelson

The rotation is the critical component for this squad, and that means the X-Factors are the two most volatile members. Nelson threw more innings than Henry last year but put up worse numbers; both figure to feature prominently in the Dbacks rotation in 2024, especially with the inevitability of injuries in modern-day pitching. Both of them have to take steps forward if the Dbacks want to be competitive all five days of the week. 

UPDATE: HUGE move for Arizona as they signed starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery to a one-year deal. I feel much better about this rotation, but the young guys still have to step up. Definitely solidifies their place among the major contenders. 

6. Philadelphia Phillies (2023: 90 - 72)

Yowzers, the Phillies are gonna be fun to watch this year. Up and down the lineup, throughout the rotation, this team looks efficiently and brilliantly constructed. There’s little to say about the lineup besides the fact that it’s really, really strong; Harper, Castellanos, Turner, Schwarber, Stott, Marsh, Realmuto, Bohm, you name it. Defense may be a concern, but hey, when have the Phillies ever cared about defense? Philadelphia is gonna tell every other team in the league just what they think about their silly defense by slamming six dingers a game and beating teams by two when their bullpen almost blows the game late. 

The rotation still looks strong, however; Wheeler, Nola and Suarez lead an otherwise young group into battle in a tough NL East. Good on the Phillies for locking up Wheeler and Nola for years into the future. It’s hard to imagine, but the culture is quickly changing around Philly sports, and as much as I hate to admit it, it’s awfully fun to see such an exciting, likable team develop in an otherwise-unenjoyable city. It’s a testament to that changing culture that such stars are willing to resign on modest contracts to keep building the franchise. 

The bullpen, well, we’ll see. Alvarado will probably be dominant, but the bullpen is always a wild card, especially without proven arms. It’s probably the biggest weakness for the Phils, besides defense. Luckily, they’re planning on scoring 20 runs a game as there’s a drive into deep left field by Castellanos, it will be a home run. And so that will make it a 4-3 ballgame. 

X-Factor: Whit Merrifield

You could pick any number of players to put here; I’m going with Merrifield by merit of his consistency and availability. The Phillies don’t have quite the depth on the bench as other major contenders, but a strong showing from Merrifield would significantly boost their versatility and ability to give lineup mainstays rest every now and again, not to mention some solid pinch-hit appearances. 

5. Houston Astros (2023: 90 - 72)

I see the Astros ranked as the best team in the AL West with remarkable consistency, and I just do not understand what makes this team better than the Rangers. Championship pedigree is no longer an argument. The Astros are strong all the way through the roster, don’t get me wrong, but there are holes and injuries that limit their ceiling. They’ll start the season without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, two key rotation pieces that will not return anytime soon. Verlander is elite, but he’s due to regress imminently. Valdez and Javier are both solid. Yeah, it’s a strong rotation, but is it elite? Any level of regression limits that definition. 

One thing that’s not debatable: the Astros have one of the very best bullpens in the league. Signing Josh Hader was an interesting decision, but you can’t really go wrong there. A strong set of relief arms behind Hader should give Houston a major advantage in close games. 

The lineup looks just as scary as it has in the past; a good way to convey that is that they signed no relevant position players this offseason besides a backup catcher, and they still lost basically nobody (except for Michael Brantley). The lineup will be deadly; it’s just a question of keeping the rotation healthy and elite. 

X-Factor: Justin Verlander

How long can Verlander keep pitching at a Cy Young level? How long will his fastball velocity make him appear 10 years younger? Those are critical questions the Astros must reckon with as Verlander grows older and older; at 41 years old, it’s highly unlikely that he has more than one or two more solid years in him. The hope in Houston is that Verlander’s inevitable regression holds off for now. 

4. Texas Rangers (2023: 90 - 72)

The defending champions are well-positioned for success, but their offseason was perhaps the most underwhelming of any major contender, mostly because they chose to stick with the rotation they have. The issue: Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and newly-signed starter Tyler Mahle are all out for a significant chunk of the season. deGrom is unlikely to return before August; the other two are eyeing mid-summer returns. That’s a huge number of games resting on Nathan Eovaldi + a really roughshod rotation, and that’s ignoring the huge injury risk inherent in relying upon Scherzer and deGrom to pitch every fifth day, even if they return quickly. 

The good news: the Rangers made it work in 2023. Similar offensive production from stars like Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia are prerequisites to success in 2024 for Texas, but that’s far from an unreasonable expectation. Elite teams need elite rotations, however, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Rangers adapt. The AL West will be a major battle this season. 

One interesting thing to note is that Jordan Montgomery remains unsigned; the Rangers could use him in the two-spot just as much as any contender, if not more, but they’re already on the hook for huge pieces of payroll owed to Scherzer and deGrom. I would be surprised to see them make it a month through the season without upgrading the rotation in some way. 

UPDATE: I am not rewriting all of that, but the Dbacks picked up Montgomery. Looks like he won’t return to Texas, but hopefully Texas still finds a way to upgrade. 

X-Factor: Evan Carter

The sample size was extremely limited, but Carter raked in the few games he played in the bigs last season. The key, though, is that he also raked through the playoffs and will feature prominently in the lineup in 2024. The Rangers certainly hope he can continue both of those trends. 

3. Baltimore Orioles (2023: 101 - 61)

The Orioles run the American League until further notice, a dramatic departure from recent history. Everything your team does well, the O’s do better, and the players that are doing it are probably way younger and under team control until 2027. The rotation? Led by the newly-acquired veteran Corbin Burnes, and followed by bona fide aces Grayson Rodriguez and John Means (assuming Means retains his pre-injury form). Kyle Bradish and others fill spots with strong, young talent. 

The bullpen? Still strong enough, especially with the addition of Craig Kimbrel. 

The lineup? Young, speedy and powerful. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins lead this squad, not to mention the eventual promotion of Jackson Holliday, who promises All-Star potential. The farm system is strong, the big league club is strong, and the future is remarkably bright. 

X-Factor: John Means

I’ve said it before, but Means is somehow slept on once again after a breakout rookie season and a subsequent injury. Means returned in September and pitched brilliantly; recapturing that brilliance and copy-pasting it over a full season would make a potent rotation that much more deadly. 

2. Atlanta Braves (2023: 104 - 58)

Of course there’s always an argument to be made for Atlanta as the overall best team in the league, but an underwhelming offseason means they’ll have to settle for second-best. An underwhelming offseason in Atlanta remains a decent offseason in most other places, as I expect additions like Jarred Kelenic and Chris Sale to make solid impacts, especially Sale. 

Regardless, this team will be terrifying to face all year. The lineup changed very little, led by the likes of Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. No holes to be found, barring major regression from the other starters. The rotation is similarly strong, led by Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton, closely followed by Bryce Elder and Chris Sale, along with some other potential options and young prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, who will surely get a shot at some point in the first half of the season. Any World Series-bound team can always use another strong reliever, but the bullpen is certainly strong enough for now. Atlanta will be dangerous now and for a long time. 

X-Factor: Spencer Strider

Strider put out strong numbers over tremendous inning volume in 2023, but projections predict more to come from him in 2024. A Cy Young season from Strider would be par for the course in Atlanta, but its impact would have an outsized impact on a strong but potentially in-flux rotation, should injuries or regressions derail Sale, Morton or others. 

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (2023: 100 - 62)

No more excuses. The 2024 Dodgers will be the latest of many LA superteams over the last decade, and yet the only ring they have to show for it came during the 60-game 2020 season. Somehow, Dave Roberts appears to be safe as manager, despite proving time and time again that he cannot properly utilize talent when the playoffs roll around. 

The point, however, is that the Dodgers are ridiculously loaded with talent, and you can only hold past postseason performance against a team so much; the offseason the Dodgers had more than negates their past. They signed Ohtani to a deal that will cost them basically nothing for the next 10 years (and then 680 million dollars shortly thereafter) and used the extra cap space to sign two new aces, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. Yes, Yamamoto has been poor in limited time so far this season, but the adjustment period from international leagues is well-documented. Yes, Glasnow has a glass arm, but he’s also a true ace when he’s healthy. You can try all you want to discount what the Dodgers accomplished this offseason; it’s impossible to ignore the strengths. It’s easier to ignore “low-end” free-agent signings that any team would be happy to have, like back-end starter James Paxton and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. 

The lineup? Same as usual, featuring Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Gavin Lux (for a full season, hopefully) and many other assorted stars. Oh, and Shohei Ohtani, even if he won’t get to pitch in 2024. It’s ridiculous to think about a team where less than 100 wins is disappointing, but that’s the position the Dodgers find themselves in now. 

X-Factor: James Outman (I mean, take your pick)

Plenty of options here, but I’ll go with Outman, the former rookie who started the season on a tear and slowly fell off. Elite play from Outman wouldn’t go a very long way on a team with more than enough elite play, but it can’t hurt. 

This took an unbelievably long time, exacerbated by constant late-offseason trades and injuries, but we got there eventually. Thanks for reading! Hopefully you’ll see more posts more frequently now that I finally finished this one. 

Emory